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John Kerry
Kerry is looking for some of that Big Mo -- but he won't be finding it in Missouri.

The 2004 Battlefield Narrows


And then there were none.  Well, not quite. There are still a few battlefield states left to contest. But a whole heck of a lot less than there were a month ago.  Missouri is now Bush's – Kerry will be pulling out campaign staff and money some time in the next week, to be sent to other states that he still hopes to win.  Virginia was once a glimmer in Bob Shrum's eye; not anymore, it's Bush country. So's Louisiana (yes, the Democrats were full of themselves for thinking they could win this state for Kerry, but you get points for trying), Colorado, and McCain's Arizona – all gone to Bush.  Arkansas was also a possible pickup for Kerry: not anymore. And John Edwards will most certainly not deliver North Carolina for Kerry – it stays a red state.

Sure, things could change. And sure the Red Sox and Cubs could meet in the World Series. But the weather forecast in Hell is continued sunny, and damn hot through all of November.

So, Where's the Money?
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida – that's where the battle will be fought over the next month. Plus add New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, West Virginia, and Iowa to that mix to round out the only truly competitive states still left.

Ohio, in fact, may be out of reach already for Kerry. While he's even with Bush among registered voters, he trails significantly among actual, likely voters. Absent an earthshaking turnout for Kerry and a depressed turnout for Bush, Ohio will remain a red state in 2004. Kerry will continue to contest this state almost to Election Day – and I'll explain why in a second.

Florida is a total toss-up at this point – an argument can be made for either Bush or Kerry. The momentum belongs to Bush at the moment, and so it leans ever so slightly towards red; this can change at any point.

The shocker for Kerry is that Pennsylvania is still a total toss-up – despite that PA went for Gore in 2000, and despite that Mrs. Ketchup controls hundreds of millions of dollars in this state, Pennsylvania is still within Bush's grasp. Kerry will need to defend this state through at least mid-October: bad news for the Democrats. Kerry basically can't win this election without retaining Pennsylvania.

The Math
Kerry must take Florida, and the lion's share of the remaining smaller states, while holding Pennsylvania.

Bush can win by either retaining Florida, or taking Pennsylvania and some of the smaller states, or taking most of the smaller states and Pennsylvania while retaining Ohio (but still losing Florida).

As you can see, there are a whole heck of a lot more ways for Kerry to lose, than there are such opportunities for Bush.

The Strategy
Kerry will focus on a few key things.

First, he will attempt to reverse Bush's momentum. For this he's counting on two things: that Bush's convention bounce will recede, and that Kerry can score a victory in the first debate.

Second, Kerry is hoping he can put Pennsylvania out of Bush's reach well before Election Day – by mid-October at the latest.

Third, Kerry will concentrate on holding some key states that are slightly iffy: Michigan and Maine, for instance.

Fourth, Kerry will focus mightily on Florida.

And lastly, Kerry will consider whether Ohio is reachable, or if it's not, then he'll focus on New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin to put him over the top in the Electoral College.

Of course, unless the momentum shifts soon, Kerry's plan will mostly consist of planning his autobiography and retirement from the Senate.

More Evote News & Hot Evote Election Polls

Feature 1

Pelosi Presents: 10-Year Contract w/Option to Renew
With Iraq, Bush and Kerry dominating the headlines, it seems the House Democrats are trying to get voters back to issues – in the least controversial way possible. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi unveiled the “New Partnership for America’s Future”, what Republicans are calling a vaguely worded, poor imitation of the Gingrich Contract for America. Democrats are specific on one point: they promise if the Democrats win the House, the newly Democratic House will create 10 million new jobs...

 

Feature 2

Kerry Changes Course, Bush Standing on Iraq
John Kerry's new Iraq plan includes a timetable on how to disengage without leaving Iraqis to chaos. Carefully inserting messages of "hope" into his Iraq comments, John Kerry is seeking to be a real alternative to Bush. Is the message getting through? Not so far. Despite the attention given to Kerry's speech in New York on Monday, the story being reported hasn't changed. Bush is standing firm on Iraq, despite a cold shoulder from the U.N, and even some Republicans. The Bush campaign is capitalizing on recent negative comments by Republicans, critical over Iraq, by showing voters, 'You don't have to agree on Iraq to vote for President Bush'...

 

Feature 3

Negative Attack Kerry’s Only Definable Position, GOP Says
Polls consistently show Bush ahead of Kerry on ‘Leadership’. Now, rather than playing to his domestic platform and tying it to his strengths, Senator Kerry is embarking on what some analysts say is a sure loser: Beat away on Bush over Iraq, let Clark link Kerry to leadership. With a slew of overwhelmingly negative ads running, showing a surrendering or “defeated” soldier and a death toll of Iraq, can Kerry continue his assault on Bush over Iraq successfully? That depends on how well Clark performs…

 

Feature 4

Democrats Unveil Fortunate Son Ad Campaign
Terry McAuliffe tells EVOTE.COM the flap over Bush’s National Guard service is payback for the Swift Boat Veterans ad campaign. The DNC Chairman stopped short of endorsing the disputed CBS memos, citing the Associated Press and the Boston Globe as their source of information for the new ‘Fortunate Son’ ad campaign. We hope

 

 

Evote News and 2004 Polls

 

2004 Presidential Campaign George Bush & John Kerry

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2004 Democratic National Convention - July 26 ~ July 29, 2004, Boston, Massachusetts
 2004 Republican National Convention -  August 30 ~ September 2, 2004, New York City, New York

 

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